How China wins the future: what this means for strategy, risk, and competitive position

Jan 2

Written By Ilya M

ELIZABETH ECONOMY is Hargrove Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

The value of Elizabeth Economy’s Foreign Affairs article lies not in adding another alarmist take on China, but in clearly showing how Beijing is accumulating power where the rules of the future are being written, not where today’s headlines are made.

Stripped to its essence, China is not trying to win the next round of competition.
It is trying to reshape the arena itself.

The core shift: competing over systems, not products

Public debate around U.S.–China rivalry often focuses on visible friction points: tariffs, chips, export controls, AI races. Economy’s analysis moves one layer deeper—toward the foundational systems that determine long-term power:

deep-sea resources and ocean governance,
the Arctic and emerging transport corridors,
space as infrastructure for communications and security,
digital standards and network architecture,
financial plumbing beyond the dollar-centered system.

These domains form the operating system of global order. Control here rarely looks like a dramatic victory; it looks like normalization.

Why this matters for decision-makers

For governments and companies alike, the most significant risks are no longer headline risks, but structural ones—the kind that quietly reduce optionality, increase dependency, and constrain future choices.

Four risk categories stand out:

1. Infrastructure Dependence
Telecom equipment, undersea cables, satellite systems, and technical standards turn commercial choices into strategic exposure.

2. Regulatory Capture
Sustained presence in standards bodies and governing institutions enables influence over rules, compliance thresholds, and market access—without overt confrontation.

3. Dual-Use Expansion
Deep-sea research, space systems, digital networks, and financial infrastructure increasingly serve both civilian and security purposes, raising political scrutiny around otherwise commercial projects.

4. Rule Fragmentation
A world of parallel standards and competing governance frameworks complicates long-term planning and increases compliance and reputational risk.

The chinese method (and why It’s effective)

China’s approach follows a recognizable pattern:

prioritize domains where rules are still fluid;
invest simultaneously in hardware, expertise, and institutional presence;
create alternative platforms when existing ones resist change;
persist, adapt, and repackage when initiatives stall.

This is less about ideology than organizational discipline and patience.

An important correction

China is not winning automatically. Resistance exists. Many states engage selectively, hedge their exposure, and resist dependency. Influence remains conditional.

But even partial success in frontier domains produces momentum—and momentum, over time, reshapes norms.

Practical takeaways

For leaders navigating this environment, the task is not predicting outcomes, but designing resilience:

map infrastructure and standards dependencies;
monitor rule-making institutions as closely as markets;
treat partnerships as risk-sharing arrangements, not slogans;
communicate uncertainty honestly while demonstrating control.

The competition described here is not about who moves fastest, but about who quietly sets the defaults. China has been working on this for decades. Others are only beginning to adjust.

This text is an analytical interpretation intended for strategic use and does not replace the original publication.

Source: Elizabeth Economy, How China Wins the Future, Foreign Affairs (Jan 2026)

Ilya M